Trading Analysis

October 13, 2020

Market Update: October 13

Gold has turned down from the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, short term trendline, and 2011 high. Notice the action around the 2011 high over the last few months…gold remembers! Focus remains lower. 1760 appears critical for longer term support. This is the May high, near the 200 day average, and is a parallel that crosses highs and lows since August 2019.
October 13, 2020

Market Update: October 12

USDCNH has held a massive level defined by resistance in October 2017 and support from February-April 2019. Price has also turned up from the bottom of a steep bearish channel. The top of the channel is about 6.81. Strength above would be viewed as constructive. Also, the chart below shows USDCNH (in red) and DXY (in black) over the last 3 years. Every important turn was marked by non-confirmation between USDCNH and DXY. A bullish non-confirmation is in place as long as DXY is above its September low. Finally, DXY seasonal tendencies turn up now (5 year look back) and after this week (10, 20, and 30 year look backs).
October 9, 2020

Market Update: October 8

It’s awfully quiet out there. EURUSD is on pace for its smallest weekly range since 2/21, which of course is right before volatility exploded. Hopefully we get something similar now. My view on EURUSD hasn’t changed. Price continues to churn just under important resistance (neckline and VWAP). I’m presenting a new fork today. Notice how highs and lows since over the last month have been on/near the 25 and 75 lines within this structure. I ‘favor’ EURUSD holding below this resistance.
October 6, 2020

Market Update: October 6 – All the same market

I’m leading with Bitcoin today but it could be more or less anything denominated in USD because it’s ALL THE SAME. Obsess over news if you must but there is one real reason for market moves since late March…the USD. USD up and everything else down. USD down and everything else up. The chart below illustrates this fact. Regarding BTCUSD specifically, VWAP from the high was resistance. A break under the trendline would open up VWAP from the low and 2020 VWAP in the mid-8000s. The Elliot pattern suggests that an important low could form in that vicinity because it’s also the area of the former 4th wave low.
October 5, 2020

Market Update: October 5

USDOLLAR turned up from the top side of the neckline on Thursday but returned to the neckline today. Failure to turn up now risks a failed breakout, which would be viewed in a bearish light.
October 1, 2020

Market Update: October 1 – Important Monthly USD Signal

It’s a new month which means we monthly volume signals, which are obviously rare. DX futures made a 2 bar monthly volume reversal. This means that August was a high volume up month and at least a 12 month closing high and September was a high volume down month (go here for more on volume indicators).
September 30, 2020

Market Update: September 30

Gold traded into proposed resistance at 1908 today and immediately pulled back. I am of the view that price resumes lower from the current level towards the lower parallel near 1750. Failure to stay below today’s low would risk strength into the upper parallel of the bearish channel near 1940.
September 29, 2020

Market Update: September 29

We looked at DXY yesterday, remember that the neckline is 93.50 and proposed support for that index. USDOLLAR is nearly identical with the neckline near 12040. I’m in the re-test of the breakout level (neckline) and then higher for the USD.