April 24, 2020

Market Update – April 24

Today may have been a lower high against the 4/17 high. Action since 4/13 has a head and shoulders look to it as well. In short there is no change to looking towards 2616/30 (bottom of the zone is VWAP from the low) in the near term. The chart below shows the current Dow chart with the Dow in 1929. The comparison is anchored with the panic lows. The rallies are similar. If this continues, then price would test the April lows (about 13% lower) before resuming higher. That would be considered the re-test but rest assured that if we did test the April low then most would expect a test of the March low and miss the buying opportunity. The April low in ES is 2424.75 and the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low is 2445.50. I think that’s the zone to focus on now.
April 23, 2020

Daily Trading Analysis video with Jamie Saettele (23.04)

Chief Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele takes a deep dive into the gold market, going back to the end of the Bretton Woods era.
April 23, 2020

Market Update – April 23

Resistance was hit today in gold. Futures printed a high of 1742.40 and spot traded 1718.70 at its best level. I obviously don’t know for certain if that was the end of the rally but it is a good sign (for a bear) that price reacted where it should have. I am bearish but not yet short. A break below the line that connects lows since 4/21 (not shown here but can be drawn on an intraday chart) would serve as the signal to short.
April 22, 2020

Market Update – April 22

Today’s ES break confirms the rally from the March low as a wedge. The implication is that the March low will eventually be re-tested. Near term, I’d still watch for a bounce from 2600/30. Proposed resistance is now the underside of the broken wedge line at 2808.
April 21, 2020

Market Update – April 21

Remember the 4 hour volume reversal on 4/9? ES failed to follow through on that reversal but price is back to that level. 2923/48 wasn’t reached but the rally from the March low consist of 2 equal waves…exactly. So, there is reason to ‘think’ that a countertrend rally is complete. Pay attention to 2770, which is the trendline from the low and VWAP from the February high. A break below there would also leave the rally from March as a bearish wedge, which would suggest an eventual re-test of the low. The next immediate spot to watch then would be 2600/30 (VWAP from the low and recent resistance and support).
April 20, 2020

Market Update – April 20

Gold reversed from massive resistance last week (long term parallel is shown on the weekly chart below). I am bearish…at least near term. If the decline from last week’s high unfolds in 5 waves, then I’d be confidently bearish against the high and look to short a rally. For now, just know that levels to watch are 1672.50 for support (keep in mind that this is futures and not spot) and 1724.20 for resistance.