July 15, 2020

Market Update – July 15

British Pound futures pulled back to VWAPs off of the June high and low. The level is also the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart (spot is below) and more or less the breakout level from the short term head and shoulders bottom. I like GBPUSD higher as long as price is above today’s low. Near term support and resistance levels are 1.2510 and 1.2618.
July 14, 2020

Market Update – July 14

Copper nearly took out the 2019 high today before reversing lower. The reversal also occurred after price spiked above the trendline from 2011. High today is also on the upper parallel of the channel from the March low. The reaction from massive overhead resistance strongly suggests that a high of importance is in place. Pay attention to the parallels within the channel from the March low (see below). The center line is near 2.84 and the lower parallel is near 2.71.
July 11, 2020

AUDUSD Bearish Opportunity

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July 10, 2020

Market Update – July 10

No change to the 7/7 comments and ‘view’ of reversal risk in the Nasdaq. I’m simply pointing out that NQ made another 8 hour volume reversal today.
July 9, 2020

GBPUSD Bullish Interpretations for Timing Longs

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July 9, 2020

Market Update – July 9

I remain broadly constructive GBPUSD but price could pull back from the current level, which is defined by 2020 VWAP (see 2 charts down). I’m showing 2 technical interpretations. An Elliott interpretation is that 5 waves up are complete or nearly so and that price should pull back towards the area of the prior 4th wave.
July 8, 2020

Market Update – July 8

Risk’ may have put in an important high today. The following charts ‘explain’ why.
July 7, 2020

Market Update – July 7

The EURUSD drop from 6/10 to 6/19 retraced exactly 38.2% of the rally from 5/7. 4th waves often retrace 38.2% of 3rd waves. The implication is that EURUSD is headed higher in a 5th wave. A possible target is where wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.1460. The high volume level at 1.1261 is a good spot for support (the year open is 1.1260 by the way). Be aware of the current ownership profile however (see below). Speculators are the most long since the 2017 high.
July 2, 2020

Market Update – July 2

USDJPY completed its flat and reversed from the well-defined 108.00/08, carving a bearish outside day today. 108.00 is the 61.8% retrace of the February-March decline. 108.08 was high print a number of days in April and May. The fractal nature of markets is on display in the chart below. The pattern from 6/5 to today is the same shape as the pattern from 3/24 to 6/5. That’s a fractal! Finally, I like that Yen futures held 2020 VWAP and VWAP from the February low. Very short term focus is on 106.92 although significant downside potential exists in USDJPY as long as price is under today’s high.
July 1, 2020

British Pound Crosses – Median Line Application

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July 1, 2020

Market Update – July 1

USDOLLAR traded 12383 today, not quite reaching the proposed resistance zone. However, that may be the end of the counter trend bounce. Price reversed right at the upper parallel from a Schiff fork, the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, and at a level that has been support and resistance since May 2019 (red line). As long as today’s high is in place, risk is lower in my opinion.
June 30, 2020

Market Update – June 30

Trading the last few days in indices and FX is best described as a summer lull. That said, SPX focus remains on 2888. Price has respected the short term median line and 25 line the last few days. Expect acceleration lower in the median line breaks. I have no opinion on whether or not the 25 line continues to act as resistance. If it does not then the upper parallel should be watched for resistance near 3120.
June 26, 2020

Market Update: June 26

I’m looking at short term wave counts today in USD indices and the 3 cleanest USD pairs from a short term perspective. USDOLLAR focus is still on 12418/28. A flat pattern unfolded from the 6/15 high. The rally from 6/23 is impulsive so focus is on buying support, probably in the 12289-12304 zone.
June 25, 2020

Market Update – June 25

SPX initial downside focus is 2888, which is 2 legs down from the June high and a well-defined horizontal level. Notice how price churned around the red line on this chart for most of June before turning sharply lower today.
June 24, 2020

Buying EURUSD and GBPUSD Dips

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June 24, 2020

Market Update – June 24

QQQ is back at the red line that was presented on 6/10. The magenta line is at about 253 now and intersects a short term upper channel line tomorrow (see below). That’s a great spot for a top.
June 23, 2020

Market Update – June 23

After Friday’s action, the extent of today’s USD drop was a surprise. Additional EURUSD downside is possible though if price reverses right now, which is the 200 hour average, upper parallel of the short term bearish fork, 75 line within the channel from the March low, and VWAP from the June high (see below). Bottom line, the current level is important so let’s see what happens here before determining strategy.
June 22, 2020

Market Update – June 22

ES traded around noted resistance last week before finally turning down on Friday. Focus is towards 2777.25 and 2849. This the 38.2% retrace of the rally from March and 2 equal legs down. Lows from August and October reinforce the levels.
June 19, 2020

Market Update – June 19

***Happy Phi (6/18) Day! Another day of quiet for the most part (GBP was down big) but tomorrow could get interesting intraday due to June expiration.***
June 18, 2020

Market Update – June 18

Today was extremely quiet and as a result I don’t have much to update. Australian employment is tonight however so it’s worth another look at AUDUSD. If the flat interpretation is correct, then a lower high is in place at .6977 (and price shouldn’t move much above .6900). The ‘cleanest’ downside level is .6685-.6700. This has been a major level since July (almost a year), 2 equal legs down, and the 200 period midpoint on the 4 hour chart (magenta line).
June 17, 2020

AUDUSD and Copper: Breakdown Soon?

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June 17, 2020

Market Update – June 17

USDOLLAR focus remains towards 12428. In fact, 2 equal legs up from the low would be 12418. The upper parallel of the Schiff fork and short term bullish channel intersect 12418/28 on Thursday/Friday. The level is also marked by the 4/30 low.