May 12, 2020

Market Update – May 12

The S&P (looking at SPY here) remains magentized to the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the high. This is also the September 2018 high and May 2019 high (that’s right…exactly flat over the last year). Good spot to turn down?
May 11, 2020

Market Update – May 11

Since reaching the long term parallel (magenta line) on 4/13, gold has traded sideways. Price rolled over last week from short term trendline resistance so be aware of the lower boundary near 1683. A break below there would leave price action since 4/13 as a consolidation top. Immediate downside focus would then be the 3/31 low at 1576.
May 8, 2020

Market Update – May 8

WTI traded into the 2016 low today and reversed lower. My working assumption is that crude is building a bullish base. 18.20-19.20 is the zone to watch for the next low. This zone is defined by support and resistance since late March.
May 8, 2020

Short Term Floor in Place for EURUSD?

Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele – Short Term Floor in Place for EURUSD?
May 7, 2020

Market Update – May 7

BoE is tomorrow and it looks like the bounce to 1.2484 is the extent of the corrective bounce in wave 2 of C. Proposed resistance is now 1.2405/20, which is a well-defined horizontal level and the neckline of a short term head and shoulders.
May 6, 2020

Market Update – May 6

USDJPY is nearing the center line of the channel from the 4/6 high. When a market is nearing the center line, I’m always on the lookout for acceleration in the trend…in this case that’s lower. Focus remains towards the lower channel and 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low at 105.19.
May 5, 2020

AUDUSD Short Idea into May 2020 RBA Decision

Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele – AUDUSD Short Idea into May 2020 RBA Decision.
May 5, 2020

Market Update – May 5

ES found support today from VWAP off of the Feb high. This level was resistance in March and support in April. I am treating last week’s high as the bearish risk point but given the support hit today a bigger bounce is favored. Resistance should be 2890-2930.
May 4, 2020

Market Update – May 4

A flat is still possible. Thursday’s low would compose wave B. If this interpretation is correct then wave C should carry above 12593. The most likely spot for resistance remains the wave 4 and red parallel at 12692. Bottom line, USDOLLAR reacted at critical support (l0ng term magenta trendline) so focus is higher as long as price is above last week’s low.
May 1, 2020

Market Update – May 1

ES reversed back below 2939.75 so I’m treating today’s high as a risk point for shorts. Proposed resistance is 2923/32, which were intraday supports on Tuesday. A proposed downside swing target is 2670ish. This is the median line of the bearish fork from the October 2018 high (was support on 3/10 before the 3/12 breakdown). VWAP from the low is currently 2672.50. This figure will rise slightly each day.
April 30, 2020

Market Update – April 30

Wow. I did NOT imagine that the S&P would be back at these levels. As I type in after hours trading, ES is taking out the 2/28 close. Volume on 2/28 was the highest since August 2011 (U.S. debt downgrade). High volume days are important because they represent a ‘vested interest’ at that specific area.
April 29, 2020

Market Update – April 29

To review, USDOLLAR dropped in 5 waves from the March high. The 4/14 low was right on the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low. At that point, I was looking for a 3 wave rally back to 12692. Instead, USDOLLAR has traded in a tight range. Price is nearing the 4/14 low. It’s not impossible that the rally into the 4/21 high at 12593 is the entire correction but the correction would be awfully small in both time and price retracement. So, it’s possible that a flat is unfolding. Under this scenario, a C wave rally (probably sharp) will begin from nearby levels (may or may not take out the 4/14 first).
April 28, 2020

Market Update – April 28

‘The market’ continues to levitate. Each turn lower from a well-defined level (the most recent turn lower was from where the rally from the March low consisted of 2 equal legs) is met with another leg up. Volume has died, as is tends to do when markets rally. From here, I am paying attention to 2 levels for potential resistance. The first is 2923/35 in ES. This is the 61.8% retrace and 2020 VWAP. In cash (chart is below), the 61.8% retrace is 2935. The 2nd level to note is the 200 day average and July 2019 high on cash, which is 3007/28.
April 27, 2020

Market Update – April 27

The EURUSD decline from the 3/27 high is in 3 waves. Since this decline succeeds a 5 wave rally from the March low, it’s possible that the rally from last week’s low is either a C wave or a 3rd wave. Last week’s low is also on the lower channel line from the 2019 high. This line has provided support numerous times since September (zoomed out view of the channel is below). Near term entry is unclear but keep an eye on the line off of the 3/27 and 4/14 highs for a breakout.
April 24, 2020

Daily Trading Analysis video with Jamie Saettele (24.04)

Jamie looks at the 5 wave rally into the April high in GBP/USD.
April 24, 2020

Market Update – April 24

Today may have been a lower high against the 4/17 high. Action since 4/13 has a head and shoulders look to it as well. In short there is no change to looking towards 2616/30 (bottom of the zone is VWAP from the low) in the near term. The chart below shows the current Dow chart with the Dow in 1929. The comparison is anchored with the panic lows. The rallies are similar. If this continues, then price would test the April lows (about 13% lower) before resuming higher. That would be considered the re-test but rest assured that if we did test the April low then most would expect a test of the March low and miss the buying opportunity. The April low in ES is 2424.75 and the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low is 2445.50. I think that’s the zone to focus on now.
April 23, 2020

Daily Trading Analysis video with Jamie Saettele (23.04)

Chief Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele takes a deep dive into the gold market, going back to the end of the Bretton Woods era.
April 23, 2020

Market Update – April 23

Resistance was hit today in gold. Futures printed a high of 1742.40 and spot traded 1718.70 at its best level. I obviously don’t know for certain if that was the end of the rally but it is a good sign (for a bear) that price reacted where it should have. I am bearish but not yet short. A break below the line that connects lows since 4/21 (not shown here but can be drawn on an intraday chart) would serve as the signal to short.
April 22, 2020

Market Update – April 22

Today’s ES break confirms the rally from the March low as a wedge. The implication is that the March low will eventually be re-tested. Near term, I’d still watch for a bounce from 2600/30. Proposed resistance is now the underside of the broken wedge line at 2808.
April 21, 2020

Market Update – April 21

Remember the 4 hour volume reversal on 4/9? ES failed to follow through on that reversal but price is back to that level. 2923/48 wasn’t reached but the rally from the March low consist of 2 equal waves…exactly. So, there is reason to ‘think’ that a countertrend rally is complete. Pay attention to 2770, which is the trendline from the low and VWAP from the February high. A break below there would also leave the rally from March as a bearish wedge, which would suggest an eventual re-test of the low. The next immediate spot to watch then would be 2600/30 (VWAP from the low and recent resistance and support).
April 20, 2020

Market Update – April 20

Gold reversed from massive resistance last week (long term parallel is shown on the weekly chart below). I am bearish…at least near term. If the decline from last week’s high unfolds in 5 waves, then I’d be confidently bearish against the high and look to short a rally. For now, just know that levels to watch are 1672.50 for support (keep in mind that this is futures and not spot) and 1724.20 for resistance.