June 8, 2020

Market Update – June 8

TLT reached the noted support line on Friday and reversed higher. The importance of this line cannot be overstated. This is the same line that was resistance for major tops since 2012. Another leg higher from here is possible but I don’t have a strong opinion on whether or not that happens. Favor the upside as long as Friday’s low holds. 162 is initial resistance.
June 5, 2020

EURUSD Channel Resistance and Rare 8 Day Rally

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June 5, 2020

Market Update – June 5

QQQ traded to an all-time high on Wednesday and at today’s open before ending the day down slightly. It’s interesting that the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq futures have not traded all-time highs yet. S&Ps have not either. I’m not sure if this non-confirmation means anything. Time will tell. 223.94 is still seen as an important level (call it the ‘breakage’ point) but weakness under the lower diagonal line (lower magenta line) near 230 would be enough for me to suggest that the uptrend has broken.
June 4, 2020

Market Update – June 4

SPX traded to 3130.94 today. The red line was reached but not the 78.6% retrace. On SPY however today’s high was 313.22, which is the exact 78.6% retrace. Also, a 30 minute volume reversal triggered on SPY (see chart below). This is the 4th such bearish reversal since the March low. The previous 3 were at least near term highs. I’m thinking lower from here.
June 3, 2020

Market Update – June 3

Gold is in its 8th week of sideways trade but that may be about to end. The drop from yesterday’s high is the 5th leg within the triangle consolidation. A level to note for support is 1704.40, which is 61.8% of the alternating leg. My ‘bias’ is that gold finds support there and then breaks out to the topside. Be nimble (always) though because a drop beneath 1684 would indicate that the sideways trade is a consolidation top.
June 2, 2020

Market Update – June 2

GBPUSD has broken out and near term focus is on the median ine near 1.2800 with significant longer term upside potential. Support should now be 1.2420s or so, which is the top side of the line crosses recent highs.
June 1, 2020

Market Update – June 1

DXY is breaking down but pay attention to 97.69 for possible support. This is the November 2018 high and center line of the channel from the March high. If price bounces from there then resistance is likely in the 98.50-99.00 zone.
May 29, 2020

EURUSD – Employing the Concept of Symmetry in Channel Analysis

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May 29, 2020

Market Update – May 29

Be aware of 3136 in SPX as a possible pivot. The level is defined by the 78.6% retrace of the decline,March high, and the line that crosses highs in 2018 and 2019. This line was support in December. Price has responded to Fibonacci retracements (23.6%, 38.2%, and 61.8%) during the advance which increases confidence that ‘something’ happens at the next Fibonacci retracement.
May 28, 2020

GBPUSD Entry Techniques Explained in Real Time

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May 28, 2020

Market Update – May 28

GBPUSD erased most of yesterday’s rally but I remain constructive. In fact, price found support near the short term trendline that originates at the 5/18 low. I want to see strength above 1.2300 (blue line) before committing capital to the upside again though. In general, this level has been support and resistance for a little over a month.
May 27, 2020

Market Update – May 27

USDOLLAR found resistance at the cited level (recovery high was 12536) and broke down today. Individual USD crosses nailed their supports as well (see levels noted below from last week). My wave count interpretation is that weakness from the 5/18 high is either a 3rd or C wave so downside potential is significant in the coming weeks and months.
May 22, 2020

Market Update – May 22

Nasdaq futures and QQQ (weekly QQQ is below) covered their closes from 2/21 on Wednesday and closed beneath those levels today. Mistrust of strength has been misguided but the gap fill and down day today at least presents a bearish risk point (Wednesday’s high).
May 21, 2020

Market Update – May 21

It ‘feels’ like the USD is on the verge of breaking down. That said, USDOLLAR is back into important support (line off of 2011 and 2014 lows and a major horizontal level…see weekly chart below). Support is support until broken so respect bounce potential with resistance near 12520.
May 20, 2020

Major GBPUSD Bullish Setup!

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May 20, 2020

Market Update – May 20

Resistance came in slightly higher than thought for GBPUSD but the idea remains the same. Proposed support for long entry is 1.2160/90s. The bottom of the zone is the 61.8% retrace of this week’s rally and 4/6 low. The top of the zone is VWAP from this week’s low (see hourly futures chart 2 charts down). Additional bullish evidence includes a daily volume reversal yesterday (see daily futures chart below). The last daily volume reversal was in January 2017, which was an important low. Also, don’t forget seasonal tendencies are now bullish. Elliott structure suggests that the rally from this week’s low is either a C wave or 3rd wave, so upside potential is significant.
May 19, 2020

Market Update – May 19

Gold is pulling back to the top side of former triangle resistance. If gold is bullish, then suppport should be 1716/22. I’m looking to buy in that zone for resumption of upside. If the noted zone fails to hold, then gold would turn extremely bearish because the recent breakout would be considered a completed terminal thrust from a triangle.
May 18, 2020

Market Update – May 18

The downside remains favored in AUDUSD towards the .6250s. The former 4th wave low is .6254 and VWAP from the March low is currently .6249. This is also the lower parallel of the bearish fork from the high. If AUDUSD is bearish then resistance should be about .6460, which is the underside of the line off of the 4/21 and 5/6 lows and VWAP from the April high. Seasonal tendencies are bearish for the next few weeks (see below).
May 15, 2020

Market Update – May 15

The chart of spot gold is cleaner show I’m showing it instead of futures. Price broke out of the triangle described yesterday. That’s bullish! The top side of the former triangle line should be support now near 1720/22 (former highs at 1722).
May 14, 2020

Market Update – May 14

I like to say ‘resistance is resistance until it’s broken’. Gold has been consolidating in a triangle since the April high and is testing the triangle resistance. Triangles tend to resolve in the direction of the previous trend…in this case higher (triangles can occur at highs as consolidation tops…the key is to wait for the break). At the current juncture, I lean bullish. The triangle objective is 1911, which is just under the all-time high of 1923.70. Spot gold (see below) is just under its triangle resistance line and the equivalent objective is 1834.
May 13, 2020

Confident Bearish Setups in AUDUSD and NZDUSD

Daily trading analysis video with Jamie Saettele (13/05)
May 13, 2020

Market Update – May 13

ES broke the noted level at the end of the day. 2885 is now resistance if reached and general focus is towards the 2637/97 zone (yellow box). The bottom of this zone was resistance in March. It’s also the 38.2% retrace of the decline from the February high. The top of the zone is VWAP from the low and the 3/13 high.