August 18, 2020

Market Update – August 18

Be aware of the 261.8% expansion of the 2000-2002 decline in QQQ at 283.50 as potential resistance. That’s about 3% higher. The first 2 Fibonacci levels, 127.2% and 161.8%, presented several opportunities (close up view is below). The equivalent level in the Nasdaq Composite Index is 11643.40, which is 4.6% higher than today’s close (2 charts down).
August 17, 2020

Market Update – August 17

Silver made a 2 bar weekly volume reversal last week. Volume reversal logic is explained here. The only other signals with the same volume requirements occurred in December 2010 and April 2011.
August 7, 2020

Market Update: Big CAD Levels Nearby

After some back and fill, silver blew through 26. The recent parabolic move could run into a ceiling near 33.80. This is based on a parallel related to the 1971-2001 trendline. This parallel crosses highs in 1974, 1987, and 2008.
August 6, 2020

Market Update – August 6

Expanding on yesterday’s gold chart (remember that the Fibonacci measurement is 2095…today’s high was 2070…), daily RSI is now 89.8. The indicator has been this high just twice before; January 1980 (twice) and September 1999.
August 5, 2020

Market Update – August 5

There are similarities between the current gold rally and the rally into the 2011 top. Price has met the line off of the February and August 2019 highs (highs of proposed waves 1 and 3).
August 4, 2020

Market Update – August 4

USDSEK nailed support and reversed higher on Friday from the noted channel extension and Fibonacci relationship. I’m looking for a sizable rebound in the coming weeks and maybe longer. Near term levels to pay attention to are the center line of the channel from the March high near 8.89 and the upper parallel, which is currently about 9.10.
August 3, 2020

Market Update – August 3

Copper begins the week at the lower parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March low…an important spot. If it breaks, then downside focus is 2.6325. Recall that copper put in a high 3 weeks ago at a major level (see weekly chart below).
July 31, 2020

Market Update – July 31

USDOLLAR daily RSI is 16.53. It’s only been that low twice (date since 2011); at the April 2011 low and the January 2018 low. Levels wise, the median line of the fork from the 2017 high is about 11950 (see close up below), which is in line with the lower parallel of the Schiff fork from the March high. It’s a logical place for a reversal.
July 30, 2020

Market Update – July 30

This is an analog that we’ve been following for several years. The mirror image of DXY price action from the February 1991 low closely matches price action from the March 2015 high. Figure out ‘why’ if you want but it continues to ‘work’ and I’m intrigued because the analog suggests consolidation through year end before the USD takes a digger in 2021. A close-up view is below.
July 29, 2020

Major Levels in USD Crosses and Silver

Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele, our Chief Technical Analyst.
July 29, 2020

Market Update – July 29

Today was the first day since the rally off of the March low that QQQ made a lower pivot high with 5 day strength. That means that there are 5 days on each side of the high.
July 28, 2020

Market Update – July 28

So much for ‘extreme sentiment’ towards the USD. DXY dropped for a 7th straight day today. Price is now testing the trendline from the 2011 low. The lower parallel from the channel off of the March high is slightly lower…about 93.15 (see below). At this point, I’m not sure where the next level of interest is if DXY fails to hold.
July 24, 2020

Market Update – July 24

USDOLLAR (EUR, GBP, AUD, and JPY) is testing a major level (daily chart is below). Price reacted today at the top side of the center line of the Schiff fork from the March high and the top side of the line off of the March and May highs. This is a great spot for a bounce. Pay attention to the upper parallel and former support at 12253. A break above there would indicate an important behavior change.
July 23, 2020

Market Update – July 23

July 23, 2020

Extreme Bearish Sentiment Towards the U.S. Dollar

Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele, our Chief Technical Analyst.
July 22, 2020

Market Update – July 22

This is a picture of the TV in my living room earlier today. I keep Bloomberg on throughout the day for background noise and the scrolling headlines on the right of the screen are the same headlines that are published on the app. The headline circled in red would not appear if the short USD trade weren’t extremely crowded, at least on a short term basis. Sentiment is ripe for a reversal.
July 21, 2020

Market Update – July 21

I’m not sure what to say anymore when it comes to indices. NYSE breadth, for example, was negative today (more stocks down than up) but both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up. The Nasdaq was up A LOT thanks to MSFT and AMZN.
July 20, 2020

Market Update – Big Seasonality Shift Now

Seasonal tendencies are now bullish-sideways for DXY (and bearish-sideways for EURUSD) through mid-August. The biggest shift in seasonal tendencies however is in the commodity currency complex. AUDUSD and NZDUSD enter their most bearish period of the year starting now. USDCAD is in its most bullish period of the year. Nasdaq seasonal tendencies are bearish through August 14th. These charts are shown below.
July 17, 2020

EURUSD and DXY Pattern and Levels

Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele, our Chief Technical Analyst.
July 16, 2020

Market Update – Finally a USD Turn?!

The ‘about face’ in USD action today strongly suggests that we’re on the right track insofar as being near term USD bulls. Regarding EURUSD specifically, the 5 wave rally from the 4/24 low is ‘textbook’ so expectations are for at least a corrective pullback. The year open at 1.1260 along with parallels just below are likely initial support for a bounce.
July 16, 2020

AUDUSD Big Top Warning

Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele, our Chief Technical Analyst.
July 16, 2020

Market Update – July 16

EURUSD traded 1.1452 today before reversing and closing near the low of the day. The high is right on the upper parallel of the channel from the March low. The line off of the September 2018 and March highs also reinforces the area as resistance. I’m of the mind that today was a high and now wish to trade from the short side. ECB is tomorrow. I’ll wait until that’s out of the way before determining entry.