July 2, 2020

Market Update – July 2

USDJPY completed its flat and reversed from the well-defined 108.00/08, carving a bearish outside day today. 108.00 is the 61.8% retrace of the February-March decline. 108.08 was high print a number of days in April and May. The fractal nature of markets is on display in the chart below. The pattern from 6/5 to today is the same shape as the pattern from 3/24 to 6/5. That’s a fractal! Finally, I like that Yen futures held 2020 VWAP and VWAP from the February low. Very short term focus is on 106.92 although significant downside potential exists in USDJPY as long as price is under today’s high.
July 1, 2020

British Pound Crosses – Median Line Application

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July 1, 2020

Market Update – July 1

USDOLLAR traded 12383 today, not quite reaching the proposed resistance zone. However, that may be the end of the counter trend bounce. Price reversed right at the upper parallel from a Schiff fork, the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, and at a level that has been support and resistance since May 2019 (red line). As long as today’s high is in place, risk is lower in my opinion.
June 30, 2020

Market Update – June 30

Trading the last few days in indices and FX is best described as a summer lull. That said, SPX focus remains on 2888. Price has respected the short term median line and 25 line the last few days. Expect acceleration lower in the median line breaks. I have no opinion on whether or not the 25 line continues to act as resistance. If it does not then the upper parallel should be watched for resistance near 3120.
June 26, 2020

Market Update: June 26

I’m looking at short term wave counts today in USD indices and the 3 cleanest USD pairs from a short term perspective. USDOLLAR focus is still on 12418/28. A flat pattern unfolded from the 6/15 high. The rally from 6/23 is impulsive so focus is on buying support, probably in the 12289-12304 zone.
June 25, 2020

Market Update – June 25

SPX initial downside focus is 2888, which is 2 legs down from the June high and a well-defined horizontal level. Notice how price churned around the red line on this chart for most of June before turning sharply lower today.
June 24, 2020

Buying EURUSD and GBPUSD Dips

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June 24, 2020

Market Update – June 24

QQQ is back at the red line that was presented on 6/10. The magenta line is at about 253 now and intersects a short term upper channel line tomorrow (see below). That’s a great spot for a top.
June 23, 2020

Market Update – June 23

After Friday’s action, the extent of today’s USD drop was a surprise. Additional EURUSD downside is possible though if price reverses right now, which is the 200 hour average, upper parallel of the short term bearish fork, 75 line within the channel from the March low, and VWAP from the June high (see below). Bottom line, the current level is important so let’s see what happens here before determining strategy.
June 22, 2020

Market Update – June 22

ES traded around noted resistance last week before finally turning down on Friday. Focus is towards 2777.25 and 2849. This the 38.2% retrace of the rally from March and 2 equal legs down. Lows from August and October reinforce the levels.
June 19, 2020

Market Update – June 19

***Happy Phi (6/18) Day! Another day of quiet for the most part (GBP was down big) but tomorrow could get interesting intraday due to June expiration.***
June 18, 2020

Market Update – June 18

Today was extremely quiet and as a result I don’t have much to update. Australian employment is tonight however so it’s worth another look at AUDUSD. If the flat interpretation is correct, then a lower high is in place at .6977 (and price shouldn’t move much above .6900). The ‘cleanest’ downside level is .6685-.6700. This has been a major level since July (almost a year), 2 equal legs down, and the 200 period midpoint on the 4 hour chart (magenta line).
June 17, 2020

AUDUSD and Copper: Breakdown Soon?

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June 17, 2020

Market Update – June 17

USDOLLAR focus remains towards 12428. In fact, 2 equal legs up from the low would be 12418. The upper parallel of the Schiff fork and short term bullish channel intersect 12418/28 on Thursday/Friday. The level is also marked by the 4/30 low.
June 16, 2020

Market Update – June 16th

I’m thinking that ES carries into 3110/37 before encountering stronger resistance for another leg lower. The zone is defined by the 61.8% retrace and underside of the line that crosses pivots (high and lows) since 2018 (red line).
June 15, 2020

Market Update – June 15

My view is that the USDOLLAR bounce is counter trend but it should carry higher before rolling over. The upper parallel of the Schiff fork is a candidate for resistance along with the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 5/18 at 12428. Watch for support from 12304 (more or less now).
June 13, 2020

Identifying the Next Major U.S. Dollar Index Level

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June 12, 2020

Market Update – June 12

Finally something else besides ‘melt-up’. Index action in 2020 is basically straight up or straight down. Once the market picks a direction, it goes quickly in that direction without much of a counter reaction. In ES, pay attention to 2976 for a bounce. If it does bounce, then note 3065 for resistance. IF a larger reaction materializes (which would be a change) then 3137 should provide resistance.
June 11, 2020

Market Update – June 11

QQQ is running into lines that extend off of highs over the last 9 years. A close-up view is below. The red line extends off of the December 2014 and March 2018 highs. That line was resistance for the August 2018 and February tops. It was reached today. The line that originates at the February 2011 high is slightly higher…about 251.70 in QQQ.
June 11, 2020

USDCAD Important Support Reached

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June 10, 2020

Market Update – June 10

Stephen Roach, former Morgan Stanley economist and currently employed by Yale, published A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming yesterday. He may be correct but these types of articles are usually published at near term price extremes (in this case a USD low). Technically, this is the perfect spot (December low) for a bounce. Also, DXY made a slight new low today but EURUSD did not make a new high. This non-confirmation is typical at turns. Back to 98.27 or so wouldn’t be a surprise. Finally, consider the extreme short term sentiment readings (DSI readings from Monday) in front of FOMC on Wednesday. The narrative heading into FOMC is that there is no limit to the Fed’s balance sheet. What else can they say that would ‘surprise’ markets in that direction? Risk for tomorrow seems like a classic ‘sell the news’ event.
June 9, 2020

Market Update – June 9

USDJPY plunged today. Price could bounce from the lower parallel of the short term fork near 108.00. Proposed resistance is the year open and center line at 108.75-109.00. Seasonal tendencies have turned down and the rally from the May low is in 3 waves. The implication is that the rally is complete as a correction and that price is headed for a break of the May low of 105.99.