I’m leading with Bitcoin today but it could be more or less anything denominated in USD because it’s ALL THE SAME. Obsess over news if you must but there is one real reason for market moves since late March…the USD. USD up and everything else down. USD down and everything else up. The chart below illustrates this fact. Regarding BTCUSD specifically, VWAP from the high was resistance. A break under the trendline would open up VWAP from the low and 2020 VWAP in the mid-8000s. The Elliot pattern suggests that an important low could form in that vicinity because it’s also the area of the former 4th wave low.
USDCAD held 1.3250. Today’s outside bullish day is a great way for the next leg up to commence. Eventual upside focus is the former 4th wave high at 1.3715. CAD futures failed at VWAP from the high (remember that futures are CADUSD…see below), which reinforces a bearish CAD ‘call’ (bullish USDCAD).
9/30 – USDCAD didn’t quite reach the objective and I trailed out of longs today at 1.3320. 1.3250 remains in line for support. The level is now reinforced by the line off of the 9/1 and 9/16 lows.
In July, I was looking at the similarities between AUDUSD now and AUDUSD in 2002. Fast forward and the similarities remain. The 2002 market is shown below. In both instances, price traded outside of the long term channel before dropping back into the channel. If this continues, then AUDUSD comes back to .6700-.6800 (200 day average and 25 line within the channel…just like 2002) or so before finding the next low. An analog is shown 2 charts down. .6800ish is also 2020 VWAP and VWAP from the March low. VWAP from the high held as resistance after RBA on Tuesday (see futures chart 3 charts down). I’d expect resistance near .7130 now.
Kiwi broke the short term channel, which suggests that the next leg lower is underway. 2 legs down from the high is .6371…in line with the June support at .6380. Guess what, 2020 VWAP and VWAP from the March low are both .6380 (see below). Resistance should be .6614/30 (Friday and Monday lows).
10/5 – NZDUSD continues to trade around the noted .6640. Price needs to break the short term channel in order to suggest that another leg lower is underway. The lower end of the channel is about .6620. Until that happens, continued strength into the top of the channel and 61.8% retrace of the decline at .6690 should be respected.
In yesterday’s update, it was suggested that GBPUSD could pull back and find support near 1.2800. I am not a USD bear but who knows…it wouldn’t be the first time that a surprise Brexit headline throws a curve ball. Given the high confidence bearish setup in AUDUSD, GBPAUD higher is an interesting idea. The low in September is a hair above the trendline from the 2013 low and just under the July 2019 low. Near term, I’m bullish against last week’s low of 1.7847 and thinking support near 1.7990 (see 4 hour chart below). Upside focus is the 38.2% retrace of the decline from March at 1.8777, which is near the 200 day average (not shown).
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