Today was extremely quiet and as a result I don’t have much to update. Australian employment is tonight however so it’s worth another look at AUDUSD. If the flat interpretation is correct, then a lower high is in place at .6977 (and price shouldn’t move much above .6900). The ‘cleanest’ downside level is .6685-.6700. This has been a major level since July (almost a year), 2 equal legs down, and the 200 period midpoint on the 4 hour chart (magenta line).
6/16 – AUDUSD completed its flat pattern described yesterday. .6900 was midday resistance and I’m looking for that level to hold because it’s defined by the center line of the channel from the April low, which was resistance multiple times in May. Focus is on .6715 (2 equal legs down and the bottom of the short term bearish channel).
New Zealand GDP is out in a few hours. Again, if the flat interpretation is correct, then the reaction will be lower. Downside focus is 2 legs down at .6303 and the 200 period midpoint on the 4 hour chart at .6245. Interestingly, VWAP from the 5/15 low on futures is .6290 and 2020 VWAP is .6240 (see below). Trade wise, I like AUDUSD better on the short side following the bearish weekly reversal in AUDNZD 2 weeks ago.
6/15 – NZDUSD has also exceeded the end of wave A and is testing the 200 hour average. Price could turn down now but a better level for resistance is probably the 61.8% retrace of the decline from last week’s high at .6511.
Is a flat also complete in USDCAD? If so, then price is headed towards 1.3775 (month open) while remaining above 1.3505. There is a high volume level at 1.3611. I need strength above that level in order to be long.
6/15 – USDCAD is also forming a flat! Price has yet to take out the wave A low, which is one reason to suspect that the flats in commodity currencies are not complete. Ideal support is 1.3450/90. This is the 61.8% retrace, 200 hour average, and 6/9 high. Broader upside focus remains 1.3833. USDCAD sports the cleanest short term levels of the commodity currencies in my opinion.
AUDJPY high today was a pip perfect 74.30. Price has been pressing the trendline from the March low for a week. Once/if price breaks, then the red line will be of note near 72.90. Eventual bearish targets are the mentioned 70.15 and 2 legs down at 70.83. These prices intersect a channel extension lower on Friday and next Wednesday. Watch for resistance now at 74.00 (spike low from Tuesday’s European session).
6/16 – AUDJPY rolled over where it should have today. I favor the short side against today’s high, notably because price is below 74.50 (February high, which was support in June). I prefer to short a break under the red line, which is former resistance turned support. As long as price is above that line, a ‘surprise’ rally is possible. If price breaks, then the initial level of interest on the downside is 70.15. Watch for 74.30 resistance.
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