USDJPY plunged today. Price could bounce from the lower parallel of the short term fork near 108.00. Proposed resistance is the year open and center line at 108.75-109.00. Seasonal tendencies have turned down and the rally from the May low is in 3 waves. The implication is that the rally is complete as a correction and that price is headed for a break of the May low of 105.99.
6/7 – USDJPY closed last week more or less on resistance. Note the importance of 109.70. The level was resistance in late 2019 and early 2020. It was also support in mid-March (circled). The upper parallel from the short term fork was also resistance on Friday. There was also a 4 hour volume reversal on Friday (see chart below). I’m favoring USDJPY downside but would like to view early week price action before determining short entry.
GBPUSD continues to grind higher. Best guess at this point is that price tests the median line confluence above 1.2800 before pulling back. These lines intersect well-defined horizontal levels at 1.2824 and 1.2872 over the next few days. Pay attention to that zone for a reaction. Support is probably still close to former resistance at 1.2485.
6/4 – GBPUSD is nearing the April high at 1.2648. This is a natural level for a reaction lower. Futures have also reached 2020 VWAP and VWAP off of the December high is slightly higher. Bottom line, GBPUSD is into proposed resistance so I’m thinking pullback and support near 1.2485.
USDCAD is nearing the bottom of the noted zone for support. The lower parallel of the channel from the March high is right here too. I’m an alert for a reversal higher. Proposed resistance is still the median line from the bearish channel. That’s currently about 1.3600 (just above the short term pivot high at 1.3572).
6/4 – 1.3330-1.3460 is quite the zone for USDCAD. The zone includes the 200 day average, 2 legs down from the March high, 3/6 gap, September high, and November high. The bottom of the channel is towards the lower end of this zone over the next few days. With both Canadian and US jobs tomorrow, we could get a capitulation low. The center line is still in line for resistance, currently near 1.3630.
AUDUSD daily RSI finished above 80 today. This has happened a handful of times over the last 20 years; January 2018, July 2007, November 2004, January 2004, and June 2002. All instances occurred at or just before highs. Price is also testing the 12/31 high at .7032. This zone was also important from October 2018 to July 2019. I need SOMETHING to work with though for an entry….stay tuned.
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